Causality for Earth Science -- A Review on Time-series and Spatiotemporal Causality Methods

Some important challenges in causal inference for the Earth science are still to be solved: how to scale GP models to deal with millions of points, missing data and time aggregation as well as time sub-sampling, and complex spatial-temporal dependency structures. Testing scientific hypotheses, comparing model-vs-data causal graphs, and assessing the impacts of extreme events, are just some exciting further avenues of research.

There is growing interest in the study of causal methods in the Earth sciences. However, most applications have focused on causal discovery, i.e. inferring the causal relationships and causal structure from data. This paper instead examines causality through the lens of causal inference and how expert-defined causal graphs, a fundamental from causal theory, can be used to clarify assumptions, identify tractable problems, and aid interpretation of results and their causality in Earth science research. We apply causal theory to generic graphs of the Earth system to identify where causal inference may be most tractable and useful to address problems in Earth Science, and avoid potentially incorrect conclusions. Specifically, causal inference may be useful when: (1) the effect of interest is only causally affected by the observed portion of the state space; or: (2) the cause of interest can be assumed to be independent of the evolution of the system's state; or: (3) the state space of the …

Time series data is a collection of chronological observations which is generated by several domains such as medical and financial fields. Over the years, different tasks such as classification, forecasting, and clustering have been proposed to analyze this type of data. Time series data has been also used to study the effect of interventions over time. Moreover, in many fields of science, learning the causal structure of dynamic systems and time series data is considered an interesting task which plays an important role in scientific discoveries. Estimating the effect of an intervention and identifying the causal relations from the data can be performed via causal inference. Existing surveys on time series discuss traditional tasks such as classification and forecasting or explain the details of the approaches proposed to solve a specific task. In this paper, we focus on two causal inference tasks, i.e., treatment effect estimation and causal discovery for time series data, and provid …

A data science task can be deemed as making sense of the data or testing a hypothesis about it. The conclusions inferred from data can greatly guide us to make informative decisions. Big data has enabled us to carry out countless prediction tasks in conjunction with machine learning, such as identifying high risk patients suffering from a certain disease and taking preventable measures. However, healthcare practitioners are not content with mere predictions - they are also interested in the cause-effect relation between input features and clinical outcomes. Understanding such relations will help doctors treat patients and reduce the risk effectively. Causality is typically identified by randomized controlled trials. Often such trials are not feasible when scientists and researchers turn to observational studies and attempt to draw inferences. However, observational studies may also be affected by selection and/or confounding biases that can result in wrong causal conclusions. In this c …

Some important challenges in causal inference for the Earth science are still to be solved: how to scale GP models to deal with millions of points, missing data and time aggregation as well as time sub-sampling, and complex spatial-temporal dependency structures. Testing scientific hypotheses, comparing model-vs-data causal graphs, and assessing the impacts of extreme events, are just some exciting further avenues of research.