Review of Recent Advances in Gaussian Process Regression Methods

Earth observation (EO) by airborne and satellite remote sensing and in situ observations plays a fundamental role in monitoring our planet. In the last decade, machine learning has attained outstanding results in the estimation of bio-geo-physical variables from the acquired images at local and global scales in a time-resolved manner. Gaussian processes (GPs) [1], as flexible non-parametric models to find functional relationships, have excelled in EO problems in recent years, mainly introduced for model inversion and emulation of complex codes [2]. GPs provide not only accurate estimates but also principled uncertainty estimates for the predictions. Besides, GPs can easily accommodate multimodal data coming from different sensors and from multitemporal acquisitions. Due to their solid Bayesian formalism, GPs can include prior physical knowledge about the problem, and allow for a formal treatment of uncertainty quantification and error propagation. In remote sensing, we often deal with …

The vast quantity of information brought by big data as well as the evolving computer hardware encourages success stories in the machine learning community. In the meanwhile, it poses challenges for the Gaussian process (GP) regression, a well-known non-parametric and interpretable Bayesian model, which suffers from cubic complexity to data size. To improve the scalability while retaining desirable prediction quality, a variety of scalable GPs have been presented. But they have not yet been comprehensively reviewed and analyzed in order to be well understood by both academia and industry. The review of scalable GPs in the GP community is timely and important due to the explosion of data size. To this end, this paper is devoted to the review on state-of-the-art scalable GPs involving two main categories: global approximations which distillate the entire data and local approximations which divide the data for subspace learning. Particularly, for global approximations, we mainly focus on …

Gaussian processes (GPs) are an important tool in machine learning and statistics with applications ranging from social and natural science through engineering. They constitute a powerful kernelized non-parametric method with well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, however, off-the-shelf GP inference procedures are limited to datasets with several thousand data points because of their cubic computational complexity. For this reason, many sparse GPs techniques have been developed over the past years. In this paper, we focus on GP regression tasks and propose a new approach based on aggregating predictions from several local and correlated experts. Thereby, the degree of correlation between the experts can vary between independent up to fully correlated experts. The individual predictions of the experts are aggregated taking into account their correlation resulting in consistent uncertainty estimates. Our method recovers independent Product of Experts, sparse GP and full GP in the limitin …

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a popular class of Bayesian nonparametric models, but its training can be computationally burdensome for massive training datasets. While there has been notable work on scaling up these models for big data, existing methods typically rely on a stationary GP assumption for approximation, and can thus perform poorly when the underlying response surface is non-stationary, i.e., it has some regions of rapid change and other regions with little change. Such non-stationarity is, however, ubiquitous in real-world problems, including our motivating application for surrogate modeling of computer experiments. We thus propose a new Product of Sparse GP (ProSpar-GP) method for scalable GP modeling with massive non-stationary data. The ProSpar-GP makes use of a carefully-constructed product-of-experts formulation of sparse GP experts, where different experts are placed within local regions of non-stationarity. These GP experts are fit via a novel variational inference a …

The probability density function of a probability distribution is a fundamental concept in probability theory and a key ingredient in various widely used machine learning methods. However, the necessary framework for compiling probabilistic functional programs to density functions has only recently been developed. In this work, we present a density compiler for a probabilistic language with failure and both discrete and continuous distributions, and provide a proof of its soundness. The compiler greatly reduces the development effort of domain experts, which we demonstrate by solving inference problems from various scientific applications, such as modelling the global carbon cycle, using a standard Markov chain Monte Carlo framework.