Interpretable Machine Learning for Weather and Climate Prediction: A Survey

Abstract Hate speech has spread more rapidly through the daily use of technology and, most notably, by sharing your opinions or feelings on social media in a negative aspect. Although numerous works have been carried out in detecting hate speeches in English, German, and other languages, very few works have been carried out in the context of the Bengali language. In contrast, millions of people communicate on social media in Bengali. The few existing works that have been carried out need improvements in both accuracy and interpretability. This article proposed encoder–decoder-based machine learning model, a popular tool in NLP, to classify user’s Bengali comments from Facebook pages. A dataset of 7,425 Bengali comments, consisting of seven distinct categories of hate speeches, was used to train and evaluate our model. For extracting and encoding local features from the comments, 1D convolutional layers were used. Finally, the attention mechanism, LSTM, and GRU-based decoders have been …

Reliable and accurate wind speed prediction has significant impact in many industrial sectors such as economic, business and management among others. This paper presents a new model for wind speed prediction based on Graph Attention Networks (GAT). In particular, the proposed model extends GAT architecture by equipping it with a learnable adjacency matrix as well as incorporating a new attention mechanism with the aim of obtaining attention scores per weather variable. The output of the GAT based model is combined with the LSTM layer in order to exploit both the spatial and temporal characteristics of the multivariate multidimensional historical weather data. Real weather data collected from several cities in Denmark and Netherlands are used to conduct the experiments and evaluate the performance of the proposed model. We show that in comparison to previous architectures used for wind speed prediction, the proposed model is able to better learn the complex input-output relationships of …

Accurate prediction of crop yield supported by scientific and domain-relevant insights, is useful to improve agricultural breeding, provide monitoring across diverse climatic conditions and thereby protect against climatic challenges to crop production. We used performance records from Uniform Soybean Tests (UST) in North America to build a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM)-Recurrent Neural Network based model that leveraged pedigree relatedness measures along with weekly weather parameters to dissect and predict genotype response in multiple-environments. Our proposed models outperformed other competing machine learning models such as Support Vector Regression with Radial Basis Function kernel (SVR-RBF), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and the data-driven USDA model for yield prediction. Additionally, for providing interpretability of the important time-windows in the growing season, we developed a temporal attention mechanism for LSTM models. The output …

Numerical weather forecasting on high-resolution physical models consume hours of computations on supercomputers. Application of deep learning and machine learning methods in forecasting revealed new solutions in this area. In this paper, we forecast high-resolution numeric weather data using both input weather data and observations by providing a novel deep learning architecture. We formulate the problem as spatio-temporal prediction. Our model is composed of Convolutional Long-short Term Memory, and Convolutional Neural Network units with encoder-decoder structure. We enhance the short-long term performance and interpretability with an attention and a context matcher mechanism. We perform experiments on high-scale, real-life, benchmark numerical weather dataset, ERA5 hourly data on pressure levels, and forecast the temperature. The results show significant improvements in capturing both spatial and temporal correlations with attention matrices focusing on different parts of the input …

Climate models (CM) are used to evaluate the impact of climate change on the risk of floods and strong precipitation events. However, these numerical simulators have difficulties representing precipitation events accurately, mainly due to limited spatial resolution when simulating multi-scale dynamics in the atmosphere. To improve the prediction of high resolution precipitation we apply a Deep Learning (DL) approach using an input of CM simulations of the model fields (weather variables) that are more predictable than local precipitation. To this end, we present TRU-NET (Temporal Recurrent U-Net), an encoder-decoder model featuring a novel 2D cross attention mechanism between contiguous convolutional-recurrent layers to effectively model multi-scale spatio-temporal weather processes.