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开发阶段案例 · 模型盲评尚待独立人工复核，不代表正式 Benchmark 结论。
自动补全Evidence 更优95 / 162 · 5ab26034a3b6d744

Long-term modulation of solar cycles

天体物理学 · 2302.14845v1

FLOWING EVIDENCE BENCHMARK

怎么判断 Evidence 真的有帮助？

核心问题是：在同一写作位置、使用同一模型和任务时，提供检索文献片段会怎样改变首次输出？我们成对比较两种条件，保留持平、不可用和评审未完成的结果。

同一段原稿 · 比较是否提供 Evidence

01 · 固定写作位置

论文原稿

同一处写作点位 ▌

同一原稿位置的自动补全成对比较

02 · 构造两组输入

两组共用

原稿上下文、模型、任务和提示词

A · 提供 Evidence

额外提供检索文献片段

B · 不提供 Evidence

不提供检索文献片段

LLM

同一模型、同一版本

A → 首次输出

B → 首次输出

盲评 Agent

匿名标记两份首次输出为 X、Y

按续写质量判断：准确性、任务贴合度和可用性
输出：X 更优 / 持平 / Y 更优 / 两组均不可用

换序复评：X / Y → Y / X

盲评具体怎么判？

① 匿名两份输出
评审看到同一原稿和两份首次输出，但不知道哪份用了 Evidence。

② 比较并换序复评
根据当前任务的标准，按 X/Y、再按 Y/X 的顺序各评一次。

③ 复核分歧
两次结论不一致时再做第三次判定；未完成的评审也留在分母。

自动补全点位怎样分层？

在查看生成结果前，先核查检索片段是否含有能直接支撑下一步续写的具体命题；有则放在左侧机会组，否则放在右侧普通组。每个学科从可准入论文中均衡选取两组点位。50/50 是实验设计，不代表真实写作中两类点位各占一半。

AUTOCOMPLETE · 110

定量生物学、统计学、天体物理学

左侧 55 个、右侧 55 个点位；统计学采用 10 篇论文的复测结果。

AUTOCOMPLETE · 52

心理学与气候科学

左侧 26 个、右侧 26 个点位；心理学计入 9 篇，气候科学计入 4 篇。

表格里的百分比怎么算？

五学科共有 81 个左侧点位。原始盲评有 51 个 Evidence 胜出；任务校验将其中一条空白续写改归“两组均不可用”，因此公开统计为 50 个。普通组另有一条双方空白，已从“未分出胜负”改归“两组均不可用”。这些原始判定仍可在案例页查看。

50Evidence 版本更优
÷
81该层全部点位
=
62%该层 Evidence 获评更优的比例

来源贡献是另一项复核：已进入复核的 21 个 Evidence 获胜点位中，16 个确认直接使用了检索论文；另有 29 个胜出点位尚待复核。

当前是开发阶段的模型评审结果，尚未完成独立人工复核；这些数字不代表正式 Benchmark 结论，也不能单独证明因果关系。

原稿写作位置

原文摘录 · 非 PDF 页面

研究论文 · 原文片段

Long-term modulation of solar cycles

6 Implications for the dynamo theory > 6.1 Introduction to the solar dynamo

The solar magnetic cycle is maintained by a dynamo process, operating in the solar convection zone (SCZ). Thus, it is natural to expect that the variations in the solar cycle are caused by some mechanisms in the solar dynamo. Here we identify the causes of the variations in the solar cycle and demonstrate them by presenting results from some illustrative models. Let us first summarise the mechanism of the solar dynamo.

…so-called Babcock–Leighton process is clearly identified in the observed magnetic field data on the solar surface ( Mordvinov et al, 2022 , e.g.,) . The observed correlation between the polar field (or its proxy) at the solar minima and the amplitude of the next cycle ( Wang and Sheeley, 2009 ; Kitchatinov and Olemskoy, 2011 ; Muñoz-Jaramillo et al, 2013 ; Priyal et al, 2014 ) and the flux budgets of the observed and the generated poloidal and toroidal fields ( Cameron and Schüssler, 2015 ) suggest that the Babcock–Leighton process is possibly the main source of the poloidal field in the Sun.

↓ 此处生成下一段续写

黄色标出写作点位附近的原文；本页根据评测输入重排文本，不是原始 PDF 截图。

同一写作位置的成对对照盲评结果：Evidence 更优

两组使用同一模型、同一写作任务和原稿上下文，仅比较是否提供检索文献片段。下方展示评测记录中的首次输出。

Evidence

同一模型与写作位置 · 提供检索文献片段 · 首次输出

盲评更优

In Babcock–Leighton dynamo models, the poloidal flux generated at the surface must be transported back to the base of the convection zone, and a poleward meridional circulation at the solar surface provides the required return path.

提供给 Evidence 版本的文献片段

A mean-field Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo model with long-term variability ↗

At the same time, the magnetic field of the following spot will also decay and connect with the polar magnetic field, which has opposite polarity. This process will at some point annihilate the flux in the polar region, causing a poloidal polarity reversal. In this case the poloidal and toroidal fie…

展开完整文献摘录

At the same time, the magnetic field of the following spot will also decay and connect with the polar magnetic field, which has opposite polarity. This process will at some point annihilate the flux in the polar region, causing a poloidal polarity reversal. In this case the poloidal and toroidal fields regeneration processes are spatially separated (recall Figure 1 h to Figure 1 j); a mechanism transporting the new polar surface magnetic flux generated by the Babcock-Leighton mechanism to the bottom of the convection zone is necessary. Facing this requirement, initially a meridional circulation flow was assumed in Babcock-Leighton dynamo modeling. As a matter of fact, a poleward meridional flow is indeed observed at the solar surface ( Duvall Jr,, 1979 ) .

无 Evidence

同一模型与写作位置 · 不提供检索文献片段 · 首次输出

本次未获偏好

In the Babcock–Leighton framework, the toroidal field generated by differential rotation near the base of the convection zone rises to the surface as tilted bipolar active regions, and the decay and dispersal of these regions supply the poloidal field that seeds the next cycle.

评审结论与任务校验

模型盲评判定“Evidence 更优”。下方保留评审原始理由（英文），供核对判断依据。

查看模型评审原始理由（英文）

原始理由中的 Output A = 无 Evidence，Output B = Evidence。

Output B is directly grounded in the supplied source, which explicitly states that 'a mechanism transporting the new polar surface magnetic flux generated by the Babcock-Leighton mechanism to the bottom of the convection zone is necessary' and that 'initially a meridional circulation flow was assumed in Babcock-Leighton dynamo modeling' with 'a poleward meridional flow is indeed observed at the solar surface.' Output A, while plausible dynamo physics, introduces multiple unsupported claims: (1) that toroidal field is 'generated by differential rotation near the base of the convection zone' — not mentioned in the source; (2) that it 'rises to the surface as tilted bipolar active regions' — not mentioned; (3) that 'decay and dispersal of these regions supply the poloidal field' — the source mentions decay and connection with polar field causing reversal, but not this specific causal chain as described. The draft's preceding paragraph already establishes the Babcock-Leighton process as identified in surface data and correlated with polar fields; Output B naturally continues by explaining the transport mechanism problem and solution that the source details, making it the more grounded completion.

来源复核确认：这段续写直接采用了检索论文中可验证的具体信息。

文献片段是输入材料；出现于此不代表输出使用了它，也不代表它能够支持全部主张。原文与检索片段经过截取；页面没有展示模拟分数或模拟 PDF。